Ferry Boat Feasibility Study

Chapter 2 - Market Potential

Market potential for a new transportation service can be determined in a number of ways. Private sector transportation service providers tend to use a market definition/penetration approach. This approach surveys factors such as market interest, likelihood of use, and user fee tolerance to examine the feasibility of a new service. The net result is an indication of potential service usage based on surveying the market.

Public sector providers tend to rely more heavily on transportation modeling techniques that account for and distribute the total number of trips for a defined market to varied modes based on time, cost, and convenience criteria.

A conventional public sector modeling approach, supplemented with a limited market survey, was utilized by the Study Team to predict potential ferry ridership. This modeling approach was employed in the evaluation of several final alternatives. Prior to the modeling, a screening process was employed to reduce the initial fourteen (14) candidate termini to four (4), based on previous studies and field investigations

This chapter describes the screening methodology that was utilized to estimate market potential. Since regional travel information was not available until midway through the study, the identification of ferry market potential required two separate efforts:

• A demographic-based effort utilized available household and employment data.
• A travel-based effort utilized the MWCOG regional traffic modeling of the Constrained Long-Range Plan (CLRP).

The demographic data was used to estimate market potential during the early identification of alternative ferry routes. However, market potential based upon existing and projected travel was utilized for evaluation and to reduce the number of alternatives from four to two. Travel forecasts were used to assist in the selection of the preferred alternative.

Previous ferry studies in the region (as discussed in Chapter 1) proposed originating termini for passenger/commuter service between Quantico and the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. Proposed destinations were either in Washington, DC or near Crystal City and the Pentagon in Virginia.

Five origin areas and four destination areas were selected based on the previous ferry initiatives described in Chapter 1. The number of households within a 3-mile radius of the origin areas was identified, as shown in Table 2-1. 

Employment was identified for the following destination areas, as shown in Table 2-2.

Based upon a comparison of this household and employment data, the following linked areas were identified as potential markets that could be served by a high-speed passenger ferry boat service:

• Woodbridge/Belmont Bay to SW/SE Washington, DC
• Woodbridge/Belmont Bay to the Pentagon, VA
• Neabsco Creek to SE and SW Washington
• Woodbridge/Belmont Bay to Alexandria, VA
• Neabsco Creek to the Pentagon, VA
• Fort Washington to SW/SE Washington, DC

Three general origin areas and three destination areas were selected for further examination of existing (2000) and future (2010) travel patterns:

These origin-destination travel patterns were developed from the latest regional effort of MWCOG for testing the region’s CLRP. MWCOG utilizes the regional traffic model for evaluating a 20-year horizon, but establishes demographic inputs in 5-year increments. Trip tables can be developed for the interim years based upon assumptions regarding the network, demographics, and the regional model. In this study, Round 6.1 Cooperative Forecast data was utilized to develop the trip tables of origin-destination patterns. The Cooperative Forecasts include estimates for population, households, and employment for each 5-year increment and each traffic analysis zone (TAZ).

The trip tables were developed by establishing the following parameters:

• Origin and destination boundaries - the potential market area for each origin and destination was developed for primary and secondary markets. At the origin end, markets were assumed to be up to 5 miles away via automobile for the primary market area and 5 to 15 miles away for the secondary market. On the destination end, primary markets were within one half of a mile and between 0.5 to 3 miles for secondary markets, based upon walking and transit connection distances.

• Potential shift - in order to gauge a reasonable shift in travel to a passenger ferry mode, percentages for the primary and secondary markets shown in Table 2-3 were assumed.

Total trips were reduced to likely ferry passenger demand potential using these percentages.

Trip tables were produced for total person trips and low occupancy vehicle (LOV) trips. LOV trips represent vehicle trips with either a 1 or 2 person occupancy. Trip tables were produced for existing conditions (2000) and future conditions (2010).

Tables 2-4 and 2-5 summarize the market potential by combinations of termini. In 2000, estimates of person trip potential are greatest for the Neabsco to Pentagon route, followed by the Woodbridge to Maine Avenue or the Navy Yard alternative. When the LOV trips are targeted to shift travelers to passenger ferry boat service, the most attractive pairing is the Fort Washington to the Pentagon route, followed by the Neabsco Creek to the Pentagon route.

A significant shift in travel patterns occurs by 2010, due primarily to the sizable increase in employment at the Navy Yard. By 2010, employment in the primary market area is expected to grow by 109 percent from 10,100 employees in 2000, to 21,100 employees in 2010. This increase affects the origin-destination travel patterns. In 2010, estimates of person trip potential are still highest for the Neabsco Creek to Pentagon route, however, the second highest is clearly the Woodbridge to the Navy Yard combination. From the LOV standpoint, the demand for Woodbridge to the Navy Yard route passes the year 2000 front-runner, Fort Washington to the Pentagon, which drops to second.

The travel patterns are shown graphically for 2000 and 2010, in Figures 2-1 and 2-2, respectively.

Based on market potential criteria, the following five termini were identified for further study:

• Woodbridge – population base,

• Fort Washington – population base,

• Neabsco - population base,

• Navy Yard – employment base, and

• Pentagon – employment base

This chapter described the methodology utilized to define the study area’s travel market and test various ferry service alternatives. An initial screening of alternatives was performed using demographic-based data. This screening reduced the 14 termini initially identified to 8 termini and 7 routes. A second screening used travel data to further reduce the number of alternatives under consideration to 5 termini and 3 routes.

Data developed in this chapter will be used in Chapter 4 as one criterion in measuring the potential of alternative termini/routes.

Table 2-4 - Year 2000 Market Potential

Table 2-5 - Year 2010 Market Potential

Figure 2-1 - Year 2000 Travel Patterns

Figure 2-2 - Year 2010 Travel Patterns