Ferry Boat Feasibility Study

PM SERVICE

The primary difference in the restricted and unrestricted speed is the number of vessels required to achieve a 30-minute headway schedule. Landside costs are the same for both conditions. These costs account for:

• Access improvements – to complete Annapolis Way in Woodbridge to provide direct access from the I-95/Route 123 Park and Ride lot to the ferry dock,
• Parking improvements – to make minor lighting improvements to the existing marina parking at Woodbridge,
• Pedestrian improvements – to upgrade patron walkways to the dock,
• Waiting shelter – to erect standard bus shelters to accommodate 50+ people at one time, and
• ADA compliance – to construct ramps to get from parking/waiting areas onto the floating dock to access the ferry vessel.

The landside costs are estimated at $590,000.

Waterside costs include:

• Vessels – a 149-passenger vessel, which costs approximately $3,000,000 per vessel, was used for this estimate. A survey of high-speed passenger ferry vessels equipped for commuter service on the Potomac River indicated a range in seating capacity from 60 to 149 passengers and price estimates from $800,000 to $5 million. High-speed ferry vessels are built to order, therefore, it is somewhat difficult to obtain an estimated vessel price. The primary expense items are hull design/fabrication, power plant, and passenger amenities. High-speed ferry vessels increase sharply in price as operating speeds go above 35 mph and wake heights diminish as a result of hull design. These cost estimates are for multi-hull vessels only. Air cushion or hydrofoil vessels are not considered appropriate for the service based on noise and safety factors.
• Floating docks – two $75,000 floating docks are assumed in the capital cost estimate. These docks preclude the need for permanent construction of docking facilities at Woodbridge and especially the Navy Yard. Obtaining necessary permits for construction at the Navy Yard would be time consuming and costly. In addition, floating docks provide the flexibility to move to other locations if market demands change.

Total waterside capital costs range from $6,740,000, assuming three (3) vessels operating in an unrestricted speed option, to $10,740,000 for five (5) vessels required in a restricted speed scenario.

Patronage Projections

Projections of ridership for the Woodbridge to the Navy Yard route are shown in Table 8-5. For the purpose of operating projections, it is assumed that:

• Speed waivers are granted,
• A fare no greater than the $4.40 VRE fare will be charged for ferry service,
• Ferry service will operate on 30-minute headways,
• Approximately 5000 jobs will shift from Crystal City to the Navy Yard by the end of projection year two.
   

Table 8-4 - Estimate of Capital Costs from Woodbridge to Navy Yard

Landside Improvements

Figure 8-1 - Ferry Ridership Trends

Table 8-5 - Patronage Projections

Table 8-6 - Mode Splits

It is important to keep in mind how these passenger projections were derived. Using accepted modeling procedures for the Washington, DC region, the study performed a "top down" analysis that took total peak travel trips in the defined study area, split them among various travel modes and, based on model assumptions relating to travel time, cost, and convenience, predicted ferry patronage. This method incurs the least "risk" when evaluating expenditure of public funds.

The private ventures that are attempting to start up a similar ferry service have forecast greater numbers of patrons, at higher fares, and more patron amenities. Three observations regarding a difference in ferry patronage projections are important:

• Private operators are using a "bottom up" forecasting method that is based on the opportunity to attract patrons with an improved service in a closely defined and studied market,
• Private operators are forecasting ridership to derive projected income that will be used in a prospectus to attract potential investors that will take greater risk, and
• Only actual operation of the ferry service for a reasonable amount of time will determine which method of forecasting patronage is more accurate.

Analysis of Existing Publicly Operated Ferry Services

The Federal Transit Administration collects details of all publicly funded transit operations nationwide. The latest year for which data are generally available is 1997. Based on this data, the following analysis of all ferry activities and, for comparison, the equivalent reported data on two local transit operations, is shown in Appendix 8-1.

There were 26 ferry boat transit agencies in the United States listed in the American Public Transit Association’s (APTA) database. Detailed data was obtained from the Federal Department of Transportation’s National Transit Database for 13 publicly funded ferry operations, of which seven operated ferry only services and reported specific subsidy levels for ferry operation.

Most ferry routes are short, under 10 miles, and operate at relatively slow speeds of 20 MPH or less. The only exception is the Oakland Vallejo service in California. This service operates high-speed ferries (average speed 28.7 mph) over a long distance (30 miles). While the normal short distance ferries operate throughout the day, the Oakland fast ferry service only provides revenue service for approximately six hours per vessel per day – two hours in each of the daily peak periods and two off-peak hours.

For comparison, the Prince William express bus services operate at about 18 mph, over an average trip of 20 miles, and the Virginia Rail Express operates at about 34 mph, over an average trip of 42 miles.

The typical farebox revenue per passenger trip for ordinary ferry operations ranges from about $3 to $6, with approximately a 30% to 60% subsidy for operating costs (excluding capital costs). The average fares and subsidy levels for PRTC and VRE are consistent with these services.

The Vallejo/San Francisco fast ferry service operates three ferries to maintain a peak schedule of two ferries. The average cost of each of the ferries was about $7.5 million. Operating expenses in 1997, excluding capital costs, in comparison to the VRE and the Express bus services operated by PRTC, were:

Table 8-7 - Operating Cost Ratios

Table 8-8 - Operating Projections

REVENUE